For my Rune-Magic online workshop on 8th May I did a divination on the progress of the pandemic in the British Isles. It was a 3-rune reading, and the staves I got were Isa, Eihwaz and Kenaz.
I found this to be very clear: death and lockdown, and the timescale suggested is till next Winter. In other words, it will be the end of next winter, early next year, before this pandemic has run its course.
Sweden's no-lockdown approach is proving a complete disaster.
The country that's done best so far is Vietnam. 'Despite a long border with China and a population of 97 million people, Vietnam has recorded only just over 300 cases of Covid-19 on its soil and not a single death.' Their method included a rigorous lockdown early on, and then tracing contacts for those who turn up with symptoms.
The UK's late lockdown is a dismal failure. We had the third-highest daily death rate internationally – 4.49 deaths per million people per day. Only Sweden, with a rate of 4.68, and Brazil at 4.49, came out worse. Sweden didn't do anything and Brazil is run by a government that is openly boasting about getting pension costs down.
Britain has failed badly. The herd immunity people were wrong. The people that took their cue from healthcare workers were right.
Looking at methods for containing viral spread, the French have got a great scheme: dogs that can sniff out infected people, and this training is being worked on in England.
So the take-home: Early lockdown and tracing contacts? Best practice. Lockdown later? Almost useless, small positive effect. No action? Disastrous.
SELF-HELP (which is all we've got when we're led by donkeys): Irish researchers have found that having high levels of Vitamin D protect against Covid; it “support the immune system through a number of immune pathways”
Lionel Snell's Thoughts on lockdown.